Some Observers - Emerging Futures + Technologies + Consumers
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What New Metaphors Will Emerge from Developing Markets?

PSFK today pointed to a brief essay on Mashable by Xerox's Venkatesh Rao regarding the evolving metaphors we use in innovation, specifically around technology. Rao's article, "How Conceptual Metaphors are Stunting Web Innovation" looks at how, like armies fighting the last war in this one, we tend to let metaphors around design and usage linger long after the platform from which we got the metaphor has moved from leading edge to baggage. 

As a Xerox researcher, information formats and functions are close to his heart, and he cites the way we've clung to ideas such as "open and close" for digital documents in the age of dynamic, collaborative content such as we find on the Web, often more of a fleeting collection of information than a closed-ended container. As progress, he cites Google Wave as at least moving on to the "stop and start" metaphor of recorded media, but suggests there are more interesting metaphors to be had and resulting innovations in our understanding and use of technology. 

What jumped out at me reading his essay is how, despite our grudging migration, we still rely on metaphors of experiences of the high-tech developed world. The folder, the desktop, the document—all artifacts of centuries of bureaucracy. Or, like clicking an imaginary shutter release, we mimic use of a modern technological artifact like a camera. I wonder, though, as cultures that weren't core to the initial phase of development of Western IT gain influence, what new functional or interaction metaphors will come to the for in the next, say, twenty years? How might content, communication, or digital socialization undergo new evolution based on metaphors that didn't come out of Chicago, Paris or Heidelberg in the last few centuries, but have been embedded in Jakarta or Sao Paolo instead, or from street subcultures or networks that aren't yet evident?

A lot of this work is happening now: the fantastic Younghee Jung, for example, has been working with colleagues for some time to better understand gestural languages and how they may impact interaction design, as have other teams at various device makers and academic centers worldwide. We are only just starting to see the earliest fruit of some of this work—interaction modes that will become common in years to come but which western consumers and designers haven't even considered yet. As we move into the era of touch and motion-based interaction, this gets even more interesting. Stay tuned.

Filed under  //   culture   gesture   information   interaction  
Posted by Scott Smith 

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Comparing Information Appetites Between the DevNet and BoPNet

new study from the Global Information Industry Center at UC San Diego estimates that the average American consumers takes in roughly 34 GB of information per day, spread over about a 12 hour "feeding period" per day. If one assumes that the US consumer lives at the pinnacle of what we call the DevNet, with for all intents and purposes access to the greatest array of information sources and information delivery devices, this figure roughly measures the information diet at the top of the global info pyramid.

Skimming the report, my first question was how the BoPNet compares, given the assumed sources and modes of delivery measured for the US market. According to the research, television makes up the majority of bits consumed, roughly 60% on a daily basis. Other sources include telephones (fixed and mobile), the Internet, DVDs and other recorded media, radio, movies, printed media and video games, to name the big ones. While it would take an equivalent study and team of researches to calculate the exact figure for a country in the BoPNet, we could make the following assumptions about the information consumption conditions for BoPNet consumer:

  • The consumption "day" of the BoPNet consumer is shorter. Due to longer average work hours (long commute times in cities), time out of home dedicated to daily lifestyle upkeep (shopping in multiple markets, mainly on foot or public transport, care for family outside home), and time in home dedicated to domestic tasks, less time is available for total active information consumption, though the level of passive consumption may be significant (listening to TV, radio while doing other activities for example.) In some cases, access to steady power sources and high costs of power may limit use time as well.
  • Traditional media are dominant. This favors TV, radio and print. At the higher end of the BoPNet, DVD consumption would displace a portion of sources such as video games and Internet access. Lack of high definition TV, which has helped drive recent growth in density of information consumed in the US, would keep the total figure down and likewise slow its growth.
  • Telephony costs are higher. Again, while telephone use may be significant, this use is constrained by higher costs. 
  • Radio, recoded music and print and more important. These sources may be passively as well as actively received throughout a longer day, and during transition times between locations.
  • Internet and other digital media are metered heavily out of home as well as in. Greater use of kiosks and Internet cafes, or mobile data on the move is balanced by higher costs again. 
  • The Internet will deliver less dense media. As it grows, the Internet will be relied on to add more traditional media (games, video) to the mix, but this may not be dense as it will rely on less powerful delivery platforms (cheaper PCs) due to lower bandwidth availability and lower processor and storage specs on average. 
So, it could be assumed that overall "exposure" time to information may be somewhat but not radically lower. Less information consumed in home is partly offset by density of information exposure out of home and in public places. BoPNet consumers may have just as much exposure to "interstitial" information in transitional moments, which has evolved in response to the constraints of "owned" in-home media in these markets over the years. Consider the average soccer/football broadcast watched in Thaliand versus an NFL game in the US. The Thai consumer will see hundreds of ad and information impressions on screen during the match due to the advertising models of a continuous sport (shirt sponsorships, ad boards in stands and 10-second TV commercials or other overlays in game), whereas the US consumer will get longer, but slower exposures to 30-second beer ad that is mostly visual.

This is all a qualitative thought experiment, but it is interesting to think out, and to consider where the two information cultures are headed. The DevNet has to expand in density, whereas the BoPNet is expanding largely in number of sources and "packets" due to the cost and technology structures. The US, and much of the DevNet, will grow in density through innovation such as DVRs (packing more information into the home), HD TV, Web 2.0, media-capable smartphones, and of course more broadband to carry more information to the consumer.  

The BoPNet will grow in information "snacking" from mobiles, and other out of home media and information sources. Video games and DVDs will grow in use, but this isn't going to grow in density as much. Radio and print may decline in individual consumption terms over time, though these will continue to grow collectively as more eyeballs enter the market through both population growth and middle class expansion. 

Implications? We can surmise that the DevNet consumer is possibly reaching (slowly) a consumption "peak," where, like a diet, density reaches a point of overload. The number of sources may continue to expand in the US home, for example, but at a point the amount of overlap in information becomes white noise and therefore doesn't get consumed. For the BoPNet, these consumers already live in information rich environments, but a fair amount of this is utility versus entertainment. Since utility correlates to economic value in a more pronounced fashion in the BoPNet, the type of information may lean to the factual, and bite-sized (think of Nokia LifeTools instead of Pandora). So, like nutritional diets, the differences may be in the amount of calories of information delivered and consumed effectively and efficiently. The BoPNet consumer's information diet may sit around half to two-thirds that of the DevNet consumer, constrained by greater need for ROI from this consumption and the shape of the delivery vehicles. 

Your thoughts?

Filed under  //   BOPNet   data   DevNet   information   media   mobile   news   print   radio   TV   video games  
Posted by Scott Smith 

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How Many Flavors of Trillions?

MAYA Research just released this video about the future of computing and the "edgeless ecology" of future technology. But like a lot of other things, this ecology won't be evenly distributed, and it won't be uniformly top-end. What seems cool and interesting in San Jose, Austin or Raleigh isn't the shape this ecology will take in emerging markets. So, for example, what does BOP spime look like? 

(via Core77)

Filed under  //   computing   information   MAYA Research   networks   spime  
Posted by Scott Smith 

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