Some Observers - Emerging Futures + Technologies + Consumers
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Food for Thought from an Essay by Keith Hart

Keith Hart, best known for his work on "informal economy", defining the vitality of the urban entreprenuerial spirit he encountered as a young anthropologist in Ghana in the early 1970s has just posted an essay called The Digital Revolution and me. While enthusiasts should certainly read the whole, here are a few snippets that I found thoughtful observations that relate to the explorations on this blog.

We are living through the first stages of a world revolution as profound, in my view, as the invention of agriculture. It is a machine revolution, of course: the convergence of telephones, television and computers in a digital system whose most visible symbol is the internet. It is a social revolution, the formation of a world society with means of communication adequate at last to expressing universal ideas. It is a financial revolution, the detachment of the virtual money circuit from production, linked to the West’s loss of control over the world economy. It is an existential revolution, transforming what it means to be human and how each of us relates to the rest of humanity. It is therefore also a revolution in anthropology that will make everything we have done so far seem like the prehistory of our discipline.
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At about this time, in the mid-90s, the World Wide Web was making the internet more visual, personal and interactive. For two years I headed a Cambridge committee to explore the uses of audio-visual aids and information technology for teaching and research in the humanities and social sciences. People said there was no point in Cambridge University entering this brave new world; we were too old-fashioned and places like Middlesex Polytechnic had much more experience with online techniques. But I argued that over the centuries we had accumulated lots of beautiful stuff that could become a rich internet resource. In any case the digital revolution is not a linear development. Everyone enters it with their own bundle of specific advantages and drawbacks at a particular moment in time. The technology evolves, so that early users may be too adapted to older techniques, while latecomers can make more creative use of software that requires less specialist knowledge than before. The society made by the machine revolution is a river and you can never step into the same river twice.
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And so to the last few years, to the social networking revolution and Web 2.0: Google, Myspace, Facebook, Digg, Flickr, Twitter, Stumbleupon, Flock, Wave and all the rest. This is the heart of the revolution I want to join. I love Twitter for the chance to project myself as an editor of sorts, sending the best economic journalism from Europe to American traders, gold bugs and currency freaks. I meet an interesting class of anthropologists there. And I hone my subediting skills on the 140-space limit. Social bookmarking really turns me on. Classification of knowledge was hitherto done by experts and every piece of information had its unique place in a folder somewhere. Now tagging makes it possible for anyone to leave a mark on something they like or consider useful and you can find their guidance with increasingly sophisticated software. The people are generating the categories; and even a search engine like Google is becoming obsolete because its millions of hits are impersonal, less attuned to the user’s own profile.
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People ask me how I find time for my work with all this stuff. But, since exchanging Cambridge University for a Paris chambre de bonne 12 years ago, I have doubled my rate of publication over that of the previous three decades. My productivity as a writer benefits enormously from being online 12 hours a day. I can check anything in a fraction of the time. I stay at my work station longer when I can answer an email message there, keep an eye on a football match, surf the OAC for the latest developments. Sometimes the speed and diversity of my online connections generates a wave motion that carries my writing into unexpected regions of discovery. If this is the virtual social life, it will do for me. Bring on the revolution!
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What have I learned from all this? I could quote from the introduction to this website:

The two great memory banks are language and money. Exchange of meanings through language and of goods through money are now converging in a single network of communications, the internet. We must discover how to use this digital revolution to advance the human conversation about a better world. Our common task is to make a world society fit for all humanity.

Filed under  //   anthropology   culture   Internet   society   technology  
Posted by Niti Bhan 

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The Rise of Chi-T: Chinese IT and the Developing World

Many people already know China represents the largest Internet and mobile user base in the world: CNNIC put usage at just under 340 million midyear last year. Likewise, Chinese mobile penetration is at 54% and climbing. Both trends have fueled a voracious appetite for access devices—PCs, mobile handsets, laptops and now new lighter classes of devices, such has netbooks and early forms of MID/media players. Western device makers have historically been a major beneficiary of this growth, though homegrown OEMs such as Lenovo and Haier have become global names in the electronics business over the past decade. Meanwhile, China's low-cost labor and a growing base of bright engineers and designers have fueled the country's attractiveness as a manufacturing center for the world's gadget fetishes.

This is changing, and Chinese IT is poised to make the leap into a strong position of influence in the next decade, driven by several important factors: the aforementioned growing demand base at home and acquired expertise among its dozens of major contract manufacturers, and a desire to exercise its know-how on the global stage. While the West remains focused on its own known brands—Intel, Nokia, Microsoft, Sony, LG, Samsung to name a few, Chinese contract manufacturers such as PC makers Founder, Tongfang and Great Wall are producing own-brand product for the domestic Chinese market, including the latest 3G netbooks, e-readers and other portable devices to meet the growing demand. And some are poised to follow other Chinese IT leaders like Lenovo, Haier, Huawei and ZTE into international waters with a wave of new, cheaper devices.

The great leap doesn't stop at hardware, but reaches into operating systems and processors to run these devices. A few weeks ago Wired covered the emergence of what it called the People's Processor, a government funded push to develop an alternative, "open" processor called the Longsoon chip, which has already found its way into a number of Chinese notebooks in recent years, and forms the cornerstone of a push toward domestically created open computing that frees Chinese developers and consumers from having to rely on high-price Western software, namely Microsoft Windows and other software dependent on x86 architecture. 

The implications of this rise of "Chi-T," or IT formulated and brewed in mainland China, are potentially far reaching. Like Brazil's push into open source in the last decade (also partially a move to enable the people to attain technology with fewer licenses, and costs, attached), China's drive to create a multipolar IT world won't stop at its own borders. As it has done with automotive, energy, and other important sectors, China is looking to fill the gaps left by Western companies in the developing world, and sees an opportunity to be the provider of IT to these areas. The head of the Longsoon project himself recognizes this potential: 

Compared to Intel and IBM, we are still in the cradle,” concedes Weiwu Hu, chief architect of the Loongson. But he also notes that China’s enormous domestic demand isn’t the only potential market for his CPU. “I think many other poor countries, such as those in Africa, need low-cost solutions,” he says. Cheap Chinese processors could corner emerging markets in the developing world (and be a perk for the nation’s allies and trade partners).

This parallel IT world will be much more driven in its definition not by Western-style early adopters, but by the wants, needs and behaviors of a much greater proportion of what we might refer to as traditional late adopters—rural, less educated, lower income users, with functionality, applications and design dictated more strongly by these groups from the beginning. China-grown technology will be a central part of the fabric of the BoPNet, just as Chinese and Indian vehicles make up more and more of the wheels on the road in the BoP. 

And, as open source technology gains further in the West with the rapid rise of new operating systems and new classes of devices that platforms like Windows can't evolve fast enough to keep up with, not just components but processors, software and applications of Chinese origin (and Brazilian and Indian) will become more prominent as companies seek to innovate freely, quickly and flexibly in the West, and take advantage of all of the building blocks that are available globally, not just from Redmond, Mountain View, Seoul or Espoo.

Filed under  //   China   Founder   Google   Great Wall   Haier   Huawei   innovation   Intel   Internet   Lenovo   LG   Longsoon   Microsoft   mobile   Nokia   Samsung   Sony   Tongfang   ZTE  
Posted by Scott Smith 

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The Bottleneck of Value Flow at the Border: a No Man's Land or an Opportunity Space?

Scott talks about the DevNet and the BOPNet - the existing developed Internet and the emerging social networking services on the mobile platform meant for the BoP. Ultimately, the whole Internet is nothing more than a huge social network on the global scale, allowing us to connect with, share with, communite with and, perhaps, do business with, anyone else out there in the world.

And while the DevNet is accessible by anyone with a browser and a data connection, regardless of device, the same is not yet true for the bopnet. Its still under construction, with bits and bobs and pilot programs, spread around the developing pockets of the world. It works on mobile phones and its simplest components use only voice and/or sms as a means of communications. Basic social networks provide the semblance of the "read write" aspect as chat forums, games and news proliferate. Underlying the chatter is the increasing advance of the financial transactions layer.

Creator of the blog Mobile Banking, CEO of Fundamo, Hannes van Rensburg, has been posting of late on the eventual need for all these mobile payment systems to start becoming interoperable (a word under debate on his blog). This is inevitable if a true transaction layer is to emerge underlying the mobile net particularly for the BoP.

Lets take these thoughts a step further, and contemplate the Border Zone between the BOPNet and the DevNet, the bridge that we're slowly building across the global digital divide.

Will it continue to be the no-mans land that currently exists between the formal economy and the informal, unorganized sector? Or will it be able to provide a way for the cash based economy of scarcity from the base of the social and economic pyramid, the teeming billions of unbanked, to interact with and permit the two way flow of resources, connecting with the far wealthier formal economy?

At this point, it would be interesting to begin observing those spaces where these two economies already begin to merge or connect. In the real world, how and where does is exchange take place, which touchpoints provide value for both sides and how does value get created, infusing new wealth into the hyperlocal BoP economies, inside urban slums and between the rural and urban markets?

How does this translate into lessons for the future development of the technological roadmap? What opportunity spaces for innovation emerge?

Filed under  //   BOPNet   DevNet   Internet   money   social networks  
Posted by Niti Bhan 

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Broadband on the Bosphorus

http://www.flickr.com/photos/maryjoyce/ / CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

This week I'm headed off to Istanbul, at the heart of the 11th largest Internet market in the world. Often overlooked, Turkey is a mini-BRIC in Internet and mobile usage, with almost 26 million of its citizens having access to the Web, over 5 million of which are connected via broadband. With over 66 million mobile subscriptions, the country is on par with some of Europe's largest mobile markets. According to CGAP, Turkey is one of the most progressive mobile money markets at the moment. 

This should be a particular enlightening trip as I'm due to meet and speak with people involved with the Web and mobile media from all across Central Asia, where rapid growth is taking place across many communication channels, often against constraints ranging from expensive access to majority control of networks by governments in some countries. 

I hope to report interesting observations and indicators of change throughout the week as the trip progresses. Stay tuned.

Filed under  //   Central Asia   CGAP   Internet   mobile   money   Turkey  
Posted by Scott Smith 

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