Some Observers - Emerging Futures + Technologies + Consumers
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Comparing Information Appetites Between the DevNet and BoPNet

new study from the Global Information Industry Center at UC San Diego estimates that the average American consumers takes in roughly 34 GB of information per day, spread over about a 12 hour "feeding period" per day. If one assumes that the US consumer lives at the pinnacle of what we call the DevNet, with for all intents and purposes access to the greatest array of information sources and information delivery devices, this figure roughly measures the information diet at the top of the global info pyramid.

Skimming the report, my first question was how the BoPNet compares, given the assumed sources and modes of delivery measured for the US market. According to the research, television makes up the majority of bits consumed, roughly 60% on a daily basis. Other sources include telephones (fixed and mobile), the Internet, DVDs and other recorded media, radio, movies, printed media and video games, to name the big ones. While it would take an equivalent study and team of researches to calculate the exact figure for a country in the BoPNet, we could make the following assumptions about the information consumption conditions for BoPNet consumer:

  • The consumption "day" of the BoPNet consumer is shorter. Due to longer average work hours (long commute times in cities), time out of home dedicated to daily lifestyle upkeep (shopping in multiple markets, mainly on foot or public transport, care for family outside home), and time in home dedicated to domestic tasks, less time is available for total active information consumption, though the level of passive consumption may be significant (listening to TV, radio while doing other activities for example.) In some cases, access to steady power sources and high costs of power may limit use time as well.
  • Traditional media are dominant. This favors TV, radio and print. At the higher end of the BoPNet, DVD consumption would displace a portion of sources such as video games and Internet access. Lack of high definition TV, which has helped drive recent growth in density of information consumed in the US, would keep the total figure down and likewise slow its growth.
  • Telephony costs are higher. Again, while telephone use may be significant, this use is constrained by higher costs. 
  • Radio, recoded music and print and more important. These sources may be passively as well as actively received throughout a longer day, and during transition times between locations.
  • Internet and other digital media are metered heavily out of home as well as in. Greater use of kiosks and Internet cafes, or mobile data on the move is balanced by higher costs again. 
  • The Internet will deliver less dense media. As it grows, the Internet will be relied on to add more traditional media (games, video) to the mix, but this may not be dense as it will rely on less powerful delivery platforms (cheaper PCs) due to lower bandwidth availability and lower processor and storage specs on average. 
So, it could be assumed that overall "exposure" time to information may be somewhat but not radically lower. Less information consumed in home is partly offset by density of information exposure out of home and in public places. BoPNet consumers may have just as much exposure to "interstitial" information in transitional moments, which has evolved in response to the constraints of "owned" in-home media in these markets over the years. Consider the average soccer/football broadcast watched in Thaliand versus an NFL game in the US. The Thai consumer will see hundreds of ad and information impressions on screen during the match due to the advertising models of a continuous sport (shirt sponsorships, ad boards in stands and 10-second TV commercials or other overlays in game), whereas the US consumer will get longer, but slower exposures to 30-second beer ad that is mostly visual.

This is all a qualitative thought experiment, but it is interesting to think out, and to consider where the two information cultures are headed. The DevNet has to expand in density, whereas the BoPNet is expanding largely in number of sources and "packets" due to the cost and technology structures. The US, and much of the DevNet, will grow in density through innovation such as DVRs (packing more information into the home), HD TV, Web 2.0, media-capable smartphones, and of course more broadband to carry more information to the consumer.  

The BoPNet will grow in information "snacking" from mobiles, and other out of home media and information sources. Video games and DVDs will grow in use, but this isn't going to grow in density as much. Radio and print may decline in individual consumption terms over time, though these will continue to grow collectively as more eyeballs enter the market through both population growth and middle class expansion. 

Implications? We can surmise that the DevNet consumer is possibly reaching (slowly) a consumption "peak," where, like a diet, density reaches a point of overload. The number of sources may continue to expand in the US home, for example, but at a point the amount of overlap in information becomes white noise and therefore doesn't get consumed. For the BoPNet, these consumers already live in information rich environments, but a fair amount of this is utility versus entertainment. Since utility correlates to economic value in a more pronounced fashion in the BoPNet, the type of information may lean to the factual, and bite-sized (think of Nokia LifeTools instead of Pandora). So, like nutritional diets, the differences may be in the amount of calories of information delivered and consumed effectively and efficiently. The BoPNet consumer's information diet may sit around half to two-thirds that of the DevNet consumer, constrained by greater need for ROI from this consumption and the shape of the delivery vehicles. 

Your thoughts?

Filed under  //   BOPNet   data   DevNet   information   media   mobile   news   print   radio   TV   video games  
Posted by Scott Smith 

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Turkey's Tech-rich Future?

Twenty-four hours in Istanbul has shown me Turkey is edging toward an advanced information economy. The city is being flooded with technology: digital TV in my taxi, competitive mobile services on offer everywhere, a flood of smartphones, dozens of slick satellite TV channels, SMS banking, mobile broadband, 3G netbooks, and electronics stores stacked the ceiling with flat-screens and every conceivable piece of consumer electronics.

This is of course against a background of per capita GDP around $8,000, and 50% of the income held by the top 20% of the population. Just last year, the EIU placed Turkey's e-readiness at 5.64 out of 10 in its index of ICT maturity. Nonetheless, a competitive market with a growing, status-seeking middle class appears to be enough of a lure for the nation's media, telecoms and product marketers to pour investment into Turkey's wires, towers and airwaves.

Like their peers elsewhere, Turkey's youth are glued to their technology , from mobiles to iPods, so much so that its has trickled up to older Turks as well. This bodes well for growing a stable technology culture, and therefore economy, in years to come. In the face of this, it will be interesting to see how top-down control of digital media, including blocking some services, will be maintained.

Filed under  //   Asia   banking   EIU   Europe   media   mobile   Turkey   TV  
Posted by Scott Smith 

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Welcome to the BOPNet

Trying to answer a number of loosely related questions lately, an important idea has become increasingly clear: we are rapidly entering the age of the BOPNet. 

The past decade of ICT has been defined by a combination of Moore's law and the need to drive more and more data across expensively built networks, fueling behavior that wants faster processors, faster networks and richer communications and media experiences, culminating in iconic objects like iPhone, big screen laptops and an armada of bandwidth hungry applications and services. 

Meanwhile, while we obsessed over bigger, faster, more in the developed world, networks were lit in the global south, mobile subscriptions in emerging markets spiked, and better services have crept (slowly, but surely) into the previously dark corners of these markets. Most importantly, thousands of ambitious developers and entrepreneurs have been developing appropriate services, mainly in small islands, tuned to the unique needs, as well as the resource restrictions, of local environments. 

Now, as Niti pointed out recently, we are starting to see not only platforms that span multiple BOP environments grow and solidify, and metaplatforms emerge. We are experiencing the coalescing of the BOPNet. It's emergence can be defined by what you can and can't do with it. You can't reasonably apply most usage and business models from the developed markets—metrics are different, usage patterns are different, and Mbps moved and minutes used don't totally equate to value delivered. Massive infrastructure investments can't just be passed down—cents on the dollar matter. You can manage resources more carefully at the technology level. You can deliver high value utility while not demanding more bytes and bandwidth. You can mine a rich seam of opportunities, because there is now scale.

Thinking about this BOPNet, several implications come to mind:

1. The BOPNet is a separate sphere, but will be integrated with its developed world cousin. As commerce and communication flows between these two spheres increase, opportunities will exist in translating at the border.

2. Its unique characteristics will start to shape macro-level infrastructure. In much the same way developd world ICT models shape and bend physical infrastructure, from transportation to energy to commerce, the unique characteristics of the BOPNet will shape these same markets' design and function in the next few decades.

3. Innovation from the BOPNet will continue to flow uphill. The developed world is fast approaching a point where it cannot devote infinite resources to ICT. We are already learning to take innovations created to better serve the BOPNet and use them to do more with less in the developed world. This will accelerate. 

4. Technologically, over time the pyramid may begin to invert. The simple math will drive momentum in innovation to the point where the BOPNet reaches a kind of utility-parity with the top of the pyramid, particularly if the top of the pyramid continues shifting its media consumption to these networks at the cost of developing more actual utility and value. China is doing this with energy, innovating based on the need to sustain 1.4 billion inhabitants (an innovation inversion we will hereafter call "Friedman's Nightmare"). India may do this with communication networks in the same way, as may (hopefully) parts of Africa eventually. This will also mean not measuring innovation simply on the basis of dollars earnd, shareholder value created, or ads served, but more along the metrics of life improvement. Right now, I'd take FrontlineSMS, and Ushahidi over Foursquare and Spotify in that category.

More to come for sure. Stay tuned.

Filed under  //   BOP   China   India   infrastructure   innovation   media   mobile   networks   utility  
Posted by Scott Smith 

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