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February 4, 2010
 

Ecosystems and Emerging Nets

In my talk last week at Aalto I discussed the concept of ecosystems, of which the BoPNet is an emerging one, and described how we often have to make choices of which ecosystem we belong to: Win or Mac, Android or Symbian, Western tech or now Eastern tech. The BoPNet is itself an emerging system on mini-ecosystems, each devised around the local needs, capabilities and tools available. Where we used to make choices about ideologies, religions or other social systems, increasingly we have to choose around technical platforms that will shape our social behaviors.

One of the pleasant surprises of the later stage of the workshop was how many of our teams created solutions that were ecosystem-based, leveraging many local assets in their target area, be it Lagos, Cairo, Indonesia or Afghanistan, to create a semi-contained "platform" to improve local lives which could be scaled and connected to other similar platforms nearby into a larger system of systems. One group even created a library or set of modules around needs that could be ported to other networks—seeds that could be spread to other fertile ground.

This question of ecosystems will become increasingly important as these local nets emerge and connect. Force them to make long-term ecosystem choices too soon, and the lock-in may stifle or kill bottom-up innovation. In developed markets, there is always demand, and that provides a cushion to absorb this blow. In emerging markets and fragile local economies, this demand is not strong enough to do so. Letting local needs and local desires call the tune for ecosystem development is important, and our "co-creators" in the workshop got that. Whether larger practices of top-down ecosystem lock-in are forced in the BoP's emerging networks of communication, transport, health, education etc. will determine how well the smaller cells of the net emerge, grow and link. I hope the thinking we saw in our workshop is the new logic that pervades going forward so the green shoots of network development can open and grow.

 

Filed under  //   ecosystems   events   networks  
Posted by Scott Smith 

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November 9, 2009
 

How Many Flavors of Trillions?

MAYA Research just released this video about the future of computing and the "edgeless ecology" of future technology. But like a lot of other things, this ecology won't be evenly distributed, and it won't be uniformly top-end. What seems cool and interesting in San Jose, Austin or Raleigh isn't the shape this ecology will take in emerging markets. So, for example, what does BOP spime look like? 

(via Core77)

Filed under  //   computing   information   MAYA Research   networks   spime  
Posted by Scott Smith 

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October 30, 2009
 

Welcome to the BOPNet

Trying to answer a number of loosely related questions lately, an important idea has become increasingly clear: we are rapidly entering the age of the BOPNet. 

The past decade of ICT has been defined by a combination of Moore's law and the need to drive more and more data across expensively built networks, fueling behavior that wants faster processors, faster networks and richer communications and media experiences, culminating in iconic objects like iPhone, big screen laptops and an armada of bandwidth hungry applications and services. 

Meanwhile, while we obsessed over bigger, faster, more in the developed world, networks were lit in the global south, mobile subscriptions in emerging markets spiked, and better services have crept (slowly, but surely) into the previously dark corners of these markets. Most importantly, thousands of ambitious developers and entrepreneurs have been developing appropriate services, mainly in small islands, tuned to the unique needs, as well as the resource restrictions, of local environments. 

Now, as Niti pointed out recently, we are starting to see not only platforms that span multiple BOP environments grow and solidify, and metaplatforms emerge. We are experiencing the coalescing of the BOPNet. It's emergence can be defined by what you can and can't do with it. You can't reasonably apply most usage and business models from the developed markets—metrics are different, usage patterns are different, and Mbps moved and minutes used don't totally equate to value delivered. Massive infrastructure investments can't just be passed down—cents on the dollar matter. You can manage resources more carefully at the technology level. You can deliver high value utility while not demanding more bytes and bandwidth. You can mine a rich seam of opportunities, because there is now scale.

Thinking about this BOPNet, several implications come to mind:

1. The BOPNet is a separate sphere, but will be integrated with its developed world cousin. As commerce and communication flows between these two spheres increase, opportunities will exist in translating at the border.

2. Its unique characteristics will start to shape macro-level infrastructure. In much the same way developd world ICT models shape and bend physical infrastructure, from transportation to energy to commerce, the unique characteristics of the BOPNet will shape these same markets' design and function in the next few decades.

3. Innovation from the BOPNet will continue to flow uphill. The developed world is fast approaching a point where it cannot devote infinite resources to ICT. We are already learning to take innovations created to better serve the BOPNet and use them to do more with less in the developed world. This will accelerate. 

4. Technologically, over time the pyramid may begin to invert. The simple math will drive momentum in innovation to the point where the BOPNet reaches a kind of utility-parity with the top of the pyramid, particularly if the top of the pyramid continues shifting its media consumption to these networks at the cost of developing more actual utility and value. China is doing this with energy, innovating based on the need to sustain 1.4 billion inhabitants (an innovation inversion we will hereafter call "Friedman's Nightmare"). India may do this with communication networks in the same way, as may (hopefully) parts of Africa eventually. This will also mean not measuring innovation simply on the basis of dollars earnd, shareholder value created, or ads served, but more along the metrics of life improvement. Right now, I'd take FrontlineSMS, and Ushahidi over Foursquare and Spotify in that category.

More to come for sure. Stay tuned.

Filed under  //   BOP   China   India   infrastructure   innovation   media   mobile   networks   utility  
Posted by Scott Smith 

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