Emerging futures, technologies and consumers. A collaborative effort of Changeist and a collective of expert partners worldwide. Click on the profiles below to find out more about them.
Tianyu Leads Handset Rise in China [WSJ] - A relative unknown globally is leaping up the charts in China, bringing some innovation with it.
India's Clogged Railways Stall Economic Progress [NY Times] - Economic growth and integration in India is held back by problems growing the rail system. This may drive opportunities into digital areas as physical commerce is hindered.
India's fabled Bajaj will issue the last of its classic scooter from its production line in a few weeks, signalling a shift in Indian consumers' transportation choices and, more importantly the benchmark for middle class aspirations. Like the Volkswagen Beetle and Italy's postwar classic Vespa, designed to be affordable, accessible, simple-to-maintain means of getting to a job, shop or visit another town, the Bajaj scooter put a similar tool of middle class aspiration within reach.
Those aspirations are higher now. The reason Bajaj gives for the shutdown of the scooter lines is shifting consumer demand: India's rising consumers want a little more. They see the noisy, boxy Chetak scooter as a symbol of the country's past, not its future. They see the motorcycle or a small, simple car like the Nano as something better, less focused on utility and more on image.
This shift is telling. We've seen it with mobile phones, for example, in India and other countries. Basic is fine, but a little style, brand and power to go with the utility is not just welcome but demanded, and consumers want to be the ones to make the choice. Understanding this evolution, and how to strike the balance, will be key to succeeding in this booming economy, and may provide lessons that can be used elsewhere in emerging markets.
Two very different events in two very different places this week are worth watching for what they tell us about the future and its emerging design requirements: the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, which kicks off this coming weekend, and the New Delhi Auto Show, which opened already this week in India's capital.
Leaks and previews ahead of CES suggest what we forecasted in private last summer: a plethora of small, light, energy conserving, utilitarian devices to against the usual focus on power, size, reach and volume. Netbooks, smartbooks, tablets, hybrids, mobiles and other devices based on open platforms and/or efficient processors and sufficient storage are the theme this year. While there is still plenty for the early adopter fanbois to get excited about, there is a noticeable shift to more affordable. some might say more democratic, devices.
Meanwhile, accelerating a theme that has emerged in recent global auto shows, but enhancing it for India's unique needs (growing demand, cramped infrastructure, lower per capita incomes), small, simple, efficient and useful have been the watchwords in New Delhi. Tata of course had more to say about its revolutionary Nano, including plans to make an electric version, and Honda, Toyota and VW have led the early announcements with compact vehicles designed for the country's new motoring classes.
All of this effort in design, innovation, manufacturing and marketing isn't simply to support a short-term fad. While markets such as the US have been ramping "down" to add smaller cars and computers to product line-ups, emerging markets such as India are ramping up into these product lines as a future core offering—they know the way to reach the mass market is to accommodate this need for small, and by gaining scale and the related economies needed to succeed, these "small" innovations will increasingly port to more advanced markets. In the US, we look at small as our second or third option—something for when there is still space left to fill, and money to burn. Not so the rest of the world, where innovating small is the way out—and up.
Among IBM's many new Smarter Planet initiatives is an effort to straighten out the knots that are Mexico City's roads and streets. LA Times Mexico City bureau chief Hector Tobar says some 29 million people commute in Mexico City every day, in 6 million-odd vehicles. IBM is working with the city's transport and sustainability managers to find a software and systems fix to the problem, knowing that existing infrastructure can't just be dug up and relaid.
It's an ambitious effort, and surely anything that makes a small improvement is welcomed, as the city and country leaks productivity and economic benefit for every one of its citizens sit smoldering in the city's massive gridlock. It does raise the question, however, of whether or not one can program the chaos out of a megacity by making the buses, traffic lights and other systems run more efficiently. Mexico City's drivers, like those in many other cities (ahem New York, LA, Paris), have been trained to this chaos and have learned to live by its lack of rules. This complex system of behaviors has to be addressed alongside fixing the mechanical flow of the objects within the city.
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